Detection of infection sources for avian influenza A(H7N9) in live poultry transport network during the fifth wave in China
报告人:靳 祯 山西大学 时间:2019年10月25号(周五)9:45
摘要:Numerous studies have demonstrated that exposure to live poultry or live poultry market is the significant risk factor for human beings infected with A(H7N9). However, the issue about which explicit live poultry markets are the infection sources of A(H7N9) human cases, has not been explored so far. In this Talk, we extract the data associated with poultry farm, live poultry market and farmers'market from BaiDu Map API by writing JavaScript language, and the live poultry transport network is constructed. The A(H7N9) transmission model based on probabilistic discrete-time Markov chains is established. On the basis of the obtained network and model, we propose space-time backward detection and forward propagation algorithm to detect the most likely infection sources and compute the first arrival time of infection sources, and then analyze their characteristics. The results reveal that backyard poultry is also the important infection source of A(H7N9) human cases besides live poultry market, the risk of backyard poultry is high especially in the fifth wave in the newly infected provinces.