中国非洲猪瘟传播预防和控制的动力学模型研究初步
报告人:Huaiping Zhu, Lamps and CDM, York University 时间:2019年10月25号(周五)9:45
报告地点:行健楼学术活动室526
邀请人:万辉副教授
Abstract:  African Swine Fever (ASF) has been spreading in China since August of 2018, and now the whole country in less than one year. The Chinese Animal Health and Epidemiology Center (CAHEC) has been investigating the current endemic situation for the purpose of prevention and control of the virus. In this talk, I will present several dynamical models to  mimic the transmission mechanisms for the purpose of assessing the effectiveness of specific applied mitigation control strategies in reducing the spread of ASF in the country. I will introduce our results based on the data and observations by CAHEC from three typical epidemic sites (Guquan and Jinba and Liancheng) of Anhui and Jiangsu provinces. Our estimation of the power and course of the transmission in these sites and related numbers and report have been helping the policy makers of CAHEC and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) for control and prevention of ASF in the country.  This talk is based on the joint work with Dr. Juan Li and Dr. Xianghong Zhang etc. of Lamps team and collaboration with CAHEC.